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From 91L To Hurricane Colin?

by Ernie Fitzpatrick

posted in News and Society : Weather

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Is hurricane Colin going to come calling?

It's August 1st and what that usually means is that we should start seeing some of those standard hurricanes originating from West Africa. The first two (Alex & Bonnie) were home grown types. If Colin does become a hurricane tomorrow, (from a 91L), it will be the first Cape Verde hurricane. 

Okay a little information please. 

A Cape Verde-type hurricane is an Atlantic hurricane that develops near the Cape Verde islands, off the west coast of Africa. The average hurricane season has about two Cape Verde-type hurricanes, which are usually the largest and most intense storms of the season because they often have plenty of warm open ocean over which to develop before encountering land. 

So, where might this little storm go? 

The latest GFS model wants to bring the storm to the east of Florida and up the Atlantic coast, turning it into a hurricane. This morning's run of the European model brought the system into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane, but the latest run brings a remnant low into Florida. So, while Colin isn't, but 91L is, the Gulf Coast is an outside possibility for a visit. 

But, it's early in the game and we have many more months to go. 

Right now, the model guidance is leaning against bringing this storm toward the Gulf of Mexico. Such things can and will definitely change, especially as we're talking about a storm that's probably six or seven days from reaching the United States. Regardless, Colin and all other cape verde storms are usually much bigger than what we've seen in Alex or Bonnie.

About the Author:

As a spiritual-futurist, I have a BA degree majoring in history. One cannot know the future without knowing the past which holds clues to what is on the horizon. The world is in such a rapid expansion of knowledge that we are close to entering a tipping point that will forever change earth as we know it.

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